Updating ambiguous beliefs


05-Apr-2020 05:18

updating ambiguous beliefs-77

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We introduce and analyze a model in which agents observe sequences of signals about the state of the world, some of which are ambiguous and open to interpretation.Instead of using Bayes' rule on the whole sequence, our decision makers use Bayes' rule in an iterative way: first to interpret each signal and then to form a posterior on the whole sequence of interpreted signals.But Question 2 is much more complex because we cannot assume the small amount of data on previous detonation attempts represents a ‘fixed’ propensity of success (the normative Bayesian solution requires a non-trivial Bayesian network that models our uncertainty about the success propensities).Based on experiments involving 250 paid participants, we discovered two types of errors in the answers.The center is associated with the University of Bonn and offers a stimulating research environment through its international network, workshops and conferences, data service, project support, research visits and doctoral program.

To learn more or modify/prevent the use of cookies, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy.Research published in this series may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international resear ..." Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of IZA.This technique is computationally efficient, but loses some information since only the interpretation of the signals is retained and not the full signal.

We show that such rules are optimal if agents sufficiently discount the future; while if they are very patient then a time-varying random interpretation rule becomes optimal.IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion.



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